Christian McCaffrey isn't just playing football again—he's rewriting the script. After missing 12 games in 2024 due to a brutal combination of Achilles tendinitis and a PCL tear, the 29-year-old Christian McCaffrey has surged back as the overwhelming favorite to win the 2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award, with odds as short as -150 at BetMGM and a 60% implied probability according to Sports Betting Dime’s November 25, 2025 tracker. His transformation from sidelined veteran to league-leading force has stunned even the most seasoned analysts.
From Bench to Breakout
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. In August 2024, McCaffrey began training camp feeling strong, only to see his season unravel with Achilles inflammation. By Week 12, a PCL injury ended it entirely. He played just four games. The San Francisco 49ers, who traded for him in 2022, were left scrambling. But this season? He’s been unstoppable. Through 11 games, McCaffrey leads the NFL in scrimmage yards with 1,439 and is tied for second in total touchdowns with 11. He’s the only player in the league with at least 700 rushing and 700 receiving yards—a feat unmatched since Next Gen Stats began tracking in 2017.
His Week 7 performance against the Atlanta Falcons—129 rushing yards, two touchdowns, seven catches for 72 yards—earned him NFC Offensive Player of the Week. In Week 1, he torched his former team, the Carolina Panthers, with 31 touches for 142 scrimmage yards in a gritty Monday Night Football win. "It wasn’t pretty," ESPN’s Josh Tolentino wrote on November 24, "but the 49ers got the win they needed… thanks almost entirely to the guy the Panthers once adored."
A Break in the Quarterback Streak
Here’s the twist: no non-quarterback has won Comeback Player of the Year since 2019. For seven straight years—from Alex Smith in 2020 to Joe Burrow in 2024—the award went to QBs. Burrow won it twice. Geno Smith. Joe Flacco. All of them came back from devastating injuries. But McCaffrey? He’s doing it as a running back who catches 80 passes a season, runs routes like a wideout, and carries the offense like a quarterback. He’s not just coming back—he’s redefining what a comeback looks like.
His career stats are staggering. He’s the fourth player in NFL history to reach 7,000 rushing and 5,000 receiving yards. In 2019, he accounted for 43% of the Panthers’ total offense—the highest single-season percentage ever recorded. He set the single-season franchise record for all-purpose yards (1,965) and holds the record for highest catch percentage (86.3%) among players with 100+ receptions. And in Super Bowl LVIII? He became the first player ever with 75+ rushing and 75+ receiving yards in a Super Bowl, even in a 25-22 overtime loss.
Competition Fades, But Not Disappears
For a while, Dak Prescott was breathing down McCaffrey’s neck. After Week 6, Prescott’s odds dipped from +100 to +170 following a lackluster performance against Arizona. Even with a Week 10 bye, he couldn’t regain momentum. Aidan Hutchinson, who began the season as the favorite at +250, saw his chances vanish after breaking his leg in Week 6 of the 2024 season while tackling Prescott. His odds now sit at +425.
Other names linger. Stefon Diggs of the Houston Texans saw his odds plummet from +3000 to +1400 after a 105-yard game against the Jets. Nick Chubb, who signed with Houston after two ACL/MCL injuries, is a long shot at +5500. Meanwhile, Rashee Rice of the Kansas City Chiefs saw his odds collapse from +1950 to +7500 after accepting a six-game suspension in September.
Why This Matters Beyond the Trophy
McCaffrey’s season isn’t just about hardware—it’s about resilience. At 29, he’s not young, but he’s not old either. He’s in that gray zone where most running backs decline. Yet here he is, running harder, catching more, and staying healthier than ever. His ability to stay on the field for 11 straight games—a stretch he hadn’t matched since 2021—is a quiet triumph. He’s not just recovering from injury; he’s outperforming his peak.
And then there’s the data. He’s the first RB since 2017 to catch a pass on a comeback route that traveled 15+ yards in the air. That’s not luck. That’s precision. That’s trust from his quarterback. That’s the kind of nuanced skill that doesn’t show up in highlight reels—but coaches notice.
What’s Next?
The award will be announced in early February 2026, right before the Super Bowl. If McCaffrey maintains his pace over the final five games—especially against the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams—he’ll be the first non-QB to win since Le’Veon Bell in 2017. And if he does? It won’t just be a comeback story. It’ll be a blueprint.
Frequently Asked Questions
How rare is it for a running back to win Comeback Player of the Year?
Only three running backs have won the award since 2000: Le’Veon Bell (2017), Shaun Alexander (2005), and Priest Holmes (2002). McCaffrey would be the first since Bell—and the first non-quarterback in seven years. His dual-threat production makes him statistically unique, as no RB has ever led the league in both rushing and receiving yards in the same season while staying healthy for 11+ games after a major injury.
What makes McCaffrey’s 2025 season statistically historic?
He’s the only player in NFL history to reach 700+ rushing and 700+ receiving yards in a single season while playing fewer than 12 games. He’s also the first RB since 2017 to catch a pass on a 15+ yard comeback route. His 86.3% catch rate in 2019 remains the highest ever for a 100+ reception player. These aren’t just good numbers—they’re record-shattering benchmarks.
Why did Dak Prescott’s odds drop despite the Cowboys’ bye?
Prescott’s performance against Arizona in Week 8 was underwhelming—he threw two interceptions and managed just 188 passing yards. Even after the bye, he couldn’t regain consistency, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio (12:8) lagged behind league leaders. While he’s still a strong candidate, McCaffrey’s volume and efficiency simply outpaced him in impact metrics like yards per touch and fantasy points per game.
Could McCaffrey win MVP instead of Comeback Player?
Unlikely. MVP voters tend to favor quarterbacks, especially those on playoff-bound teams. While McCaffrey is the engine of the 49ers’ offense, his team’s overall record (9-2) doesn’t match the 12-0 or 13-0 teams that usually dominate MVP conversations. But if the 49ers win the Super Bowl and McCaffrey delivers another 200-yard game, the narrative could shift dramatically.
How does McCaffrey’s injury recovery compare to other NFL greats?
His recovery mirrors that of Adrian Peterson after his 2011 ACL tear—except McCaffrey didn’t miss an entire season. He returned from two major soft-tissue injuries in under six months, which is faster than the average RB recovery timeline. Most players with PCL tears take 8–10 months; McCaffrey was back in 5. His conditioning, nutrition, and daily rehab routines are now studied by NFL training staffs.
What’s the likelihood McCaffrey wins both Comeback Player and Offensive Player of the Year?
It’s never happened in the same season. Only four players have won both awards in their careers, and never in the same year. McCaffrey won Offensive Player of the Year in 2023. If he finishes with 1,800+ scrimmage yards and 15+ total touchdowns, he’ll be the first since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 to lead the league in both rushing and receiving yards. That would make him a serious MVP candidate—and a near-lock for both awards.